What is the direct answer?
Break-even occupancy is the share of nights you must sell in a month to cover that month's operating costs. Work out what each booked night leaves after the platform fee and per-stay costs (its contribution), then divide your fixed monthly costs by that contribution. The same inputs give you the reverse number too: the minimum average price you need at the occupancy you realistically expect.
Contribution per night = Price × (1 − platform fee) − cost per stay ÷ average nights per stay Break-even nights = Fixed monthly costs ÷ contribution per night Minimum average price = (Fixed monthly costs ÷ expected nights + cost per stay ÷ average nights per stay) ÷ (1 − platform fee)
Use your own records and verify the assumptions before making a decision.
Follow the workbook method and instructions →Low season is when this number earns its keep. In October and November hosts start to see gaps, dynamic pricing tools start suggesting lower rates, and every discount feels like the right move. AirROI's 2026 data shows why caution matters: among 83,892 US listings it followed, the typical host raised prices 12% and still lost 18.3% of booked nights, and 47% earned less than the year before. Volume, not price, is what hurt most hosts this year, and the winter months are where volume is thinnest.
Knowing your break-even point turns "should I drop my price?" into a calculation instead of a feeling.
Apply this method to your own records: apply the method with the free calculator.
A clear definition of the metric or operating question.
A calculation you can reproduce with your own data.
The limits that prevent the number being misread.
Step 1: Split your costs into fixed and per stay
Fixed monthly costs are the ones you pay whether you have one booking or twenty. Per-stay costs happen each time a guest leaves.
| Fixed each month (example) | € | Per stay (example) | € |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utilities (winter average) | 180 | Cleaning and laundry | 55 |
| Internet | 35 | Consumables (toiletries, coffee, paper) | 8 |
| Insurance | 30 | ||
| Community or building fees | 90 | ||
| Pricing and messaging software | 25 | ||
| Maintenance reserve | 80 | ||
| Local property tax, monthly share | 40 | ||
| Total fixed | 480 | Total per stay | 63 |
These are example figures for a one-bedroom flat. Use your own records, and do not leave out the small ones: hosts tend to stop counting after cleaning. The full list is in short-term rental expenses: what to track.
Two decisions belong to you. First, whether to include your mortgage payment. Operating break-even leaves it out; cash break-even includes it. We show both below. Second, the platform fee. The example uses Airbnb's 15.5% single fee, applied to the full price the guest pays, including any cleaning fee.
Step 2: Work out what one booked night leaves you
With an average stay of 3 nights, the €63 per-stay cost is €21 per night.
At a price of €90 per night:
- Platform fee: €90 × 15.5% = €13.95
- Per-stay costs per night: €21
- Contribution per night: €90 − €13.95 − €21 = €55.05
That €55.05 is what each booked night contributes towards your fixed costs and, after them, your profit. Profit per stay explains the same idea booking by booking.
Step 3: Divide to find your break-even
€480 ÷ €55.05 = 8.7 nights. In a 30-night month, that is 29% occupancy.
| Nightly price | Contribution per night | Break-even nights | Break-even occupancy |
|---|---|---|---|
| €100 | €63.50 | 7.6 | 25% |
| €90 | €55.05 | 8.7 | 29% |
| €80 | €46.60 | 10.3 | 34% |
| €72.19 | €40.00 | 12.0 | 40% |
Read the table from the bottom up and you see what a price cut really does: going from €90 to €80 is an 11% cut in price, but it raises the number of nights you need just to break even by 18%.
What changes if you include the mortgage?
Everything. Add a €650 monthly mortgage payment and fixed costs become €1,130.
€1,130 ÷ €55.05 = 20.5 nights, or 68% occupancy.
The same flat that needs 9 nights to cover its running costs needs 21 nights to cover its running costs and its loan. That gap is why so many owners feel they are "losing money in winter" while their operating figures still look positive. Both statements can be true. Operating profit tells you whether the rental business works; cash break-even tells you whether it pays for the property.
The Hostpartner calculator measures operating profit and leaves financing out on purpose, so the two questions do not get mixed. Run the cash version separately if your loan matters to the decision, which it usually does.
How low can your price go this winter?
Turn the formula around. Instead of asking how many nights you need, ask what average price you need for the nights you can realistically sell.
If you expect 12 booked nights in January:
(€480 ÷ 12 + €21) ÷ 0.845 = €72.19
That is your floor for the month. Selling below it on average means January loses money on an operating basis, however full it looks.
| Expected nights in the month | Minimum average price |
|---|---|
| 10 | €81.66 |
| 12 | €72.19 |
| 15 | €62.72 |
Two practical consequences:
- The floor is a monthly average, not a rule for every night. A weak Tuesday can sell below it if a strong Saturday sells above it.
- If your expected nights are low, the floor goes up, not down. That runs against the low-season instinct to discount harder.
The trap: one-night stays in low season
Per-stay costs do not shrink with the stay. A one-night booking carries a full turnover.
At €90 a night:
| Length of stay | Per-stay cost per night | Contribution per night |
|---|---|---|
| 1 night | €63.00 | €13.05 |
| 2 nights | €31.50 | €44.55 |
| 3 nights | €21.00 | €55.05 |
A one-night stay at €90 contributes about a quarter of what a three-night stay does per night. Filling gaps with single nights can make the calendar look healthy while the month barely moves. Before you lower your minimum stay, check the contribution, not the occupancy. Short vs longer stays goes deeper on this.
Sometimes a single night is still worth taking: an orphan night between two bookings that would otherwise stay empty, especially if you can match the clean to the next arrival. The point is to know what it pays before you say yes.
The absolute floor
There is one more number: the price below which a night does not even cover its own variable costs. In the example, €21 ÷ 0.845 = €24.85. Below that, every extra booking makes you poorer before fixed costs are counted. No sensible host is close to it, but on discount-stacked platforms it is worth knowing where it sits. See what a discount really costs.
Your checklist for the next 30 days
- Add up last winter's fixed monthly costs, month by month.
- Add up per-stay costs and your average stay length.
- Calculate contribution per night at your current price.
- Calculate break-even nights, with and without the mortgage.
- Estimate realistic nights for each winter month from last year and current bookings.
- Calculate your minimum average price per month.
- Decide minimum stays with the contribution table in front of you.
If bookings have already slowed, read what to check before you cut your price first.
Explore related questions
Clear answers, without the jargon
What is a good break-even occupancy for a short-term rental?
There is no universal figure. It depends on your costs, your prices and how seasonal your market is. The lower your break-even occupancy, the more room you have in slow months. Investors on forums often say they want it well below their weakest month's typical occupancy, which is a sensible test: compare your break-even with the occupancy you actually achieved last January.
Should the mortgage be part of break-even?
Calculate both. Operating break-even, without financing, tells you whether the rental itself works. Cash break-even, with the loan payment, tells you whether it covers the property. They answer different questions.
Does Airbnb's 15.5% fee apply to the cleaning fee?
Yes. Airbnb applies its single fee to the nightly price and to optional host charges such as cleaning and pet fees. If you charge a separate cleaning fee, include it in the price used in the formula. See Airbnb's fee applies to your cleaning fee too.
How do I find my average stay length?
Divide booked nights by the number of stays over the same period. Use the season you are pricing, not the whole year, because stays are often shorter in winter.
Is a lower nightly price ever better?
Yes, when the extra nights it brings in cover the discount on nights you would have sold anyway. The formulas above let you check that before you change anything.
References you can check
Sources checked October 18, 2026. Worked examples and review methods are our own.
- AirROI, "Was 2026 a Better Year to Own an Airbnb? We Tracked 83,892", 29 July 2026 — Source checked for the article.
- Airbnb resource centre (Spain), "¿Cuánto cobra Airbnb a los anfitriones?" (single fee applied to nightly price and optional host fees such as cleaning) — Source checked for the article.
How this guide was prepared
Fixed and per-stay costs are illustrative for a one-bedroom flat and should be replaced with your own records. The platform fee is applied to the full guest price. Results are operating figures before tax and financing unless stated. Hostpartner is an operational analysis tool and does not provide tax, legal or investment advice.
Get the inputs without building the spreadsheet.
The free Hostpartner calculator records your stays and expenses for up to seven properties and shows monthly operating costs, ADR, occupancy, operating profit and contribution per booking. Those are exactly the inputs these formulas need.
- Built for 1–7 properties
- Excel (.xlsx)
- No platform connection required
What the Hostpartner calculator measures and which inputs you need
Expenses
Length of stay